The Victory Point, the Kill Point, and Missions (or, Get Off My Lawn, you kids!)

One of the most hotly contested parts of 5th edition is Kill Points.  After all, it seems to hideously disadvantage certain armies (orks, guard, nids) and greatly favor others (Chaos, Marines etc.).  If only there was some way to value a unit based on how powerful it was and judge the game on that…

Oh.  Wait.  We already had that.  It was called Victory Points and it used the exact same points system that you use to make your army!  Essentially a destroyed unit gave it’s full points cost to the opponent, and a 50% unit or an immobilized vehicle gave 50% of its points.  It made it so that armies that had a lot of cheap units was just as tactically viable as an army that had few expensive units.

Now admittedly in 5th ed’s awful mission system, only 1/3 of the games rely on kill points.  But it’s just stuck with me how unfair kill points are to the horde armies.

Some have defended Kill points in that in the Victory Point system, you didn’t tend to risk expensive units.  After all, if they kill your expensive Space Marine Command Squad with a lucky tank shell, you were out almost 400pts, handing the victory to the enemy.  With Kill Points, your decked out command squad is worth just as much as a 10 grot mob, so if you lose it, big deal.  While this is valid, it’s not a good enough reason to keep kill points.

The bottom line?  We need more missions.  I liked the mission book at first, but if the main missions in the rulebook are chocolate, strawberry, and vanilla ice cream cones, then the missions book is chocolate, strawberry, and vanilla ice cream in a bowl.  It’s the same idea, presented slightly differently.

We need more flavors.  We need a new missions book that is the Baskin Robbins of 40K.  Bring back Meat Grinder, Assassinate! and Breakout.  I had some amazing games with those old missions.  Let’s get some variety.

Chaos Escorts

Next: Ordnance and then Chaos is done!  Then defences and Gothic is complete!

What does Sanguinius have that I don’t have?

40K Space Marine players are familiar with different options that each chapter can take.  Every chapter can take almost all of the options, but the Blood Angels have been different since 2nd edition.  They have special variants, and they don’t want to share with the other children.

For example, in the fluff the Space Wolves were assaulting a planet and their Land Raiders were destroyed in some kind of accident.  Lacking mobile lascannon support, they cannibalized their Long Fang lascannons and mounted them on Predator tanks, making the Predator Annhilator pattern.  This worked well, and the design was almost immediately disseminated to all the other Space Marines in the galaxy.

The Blood Angels, on the other hand, have Furioso Dreadnoughts, Baal predators, overcharged engines (which now make their Rhino Chassis vehicles Fast) and most recently the Stormraven Gunship.  Admittedly the Grey Knights also have the Stormraven, but that seems like an odd combo.  No one else has these unique vehicles.  I envision conversations like this happening when Sanguinius chapters meet other chapters.

Dante: Bro, what’s up?

Marneus: DUDE!  Just hanging out, how you been?

Dante: Oh, I gotta tell you about this sweet new tank my techmarines made.  It’s the Shizzle fo’ rizzle!

Marneus: HELLZ YEAH!

Dante: So get this: We mounted a twin linked assault cannon on the Predator Turret.  We call it the Baal Predator.  Bitchin’ huh?

Marneus: Aww, you gots ta get me that design, bro.

Dante: …uh.  Hmm.  Well about that…

Marneus: Come on dogg!

Dante: Sorry bro, but no-can-do.  Mephiston would kill me, and that dude is, like, totally psycho.  Plus he’s 250 points.

Marneus: Harsh, bud.  Look, I got some girls coming over, you’d better go.

Dante: Oh.  I see how it is.  Later.  Bro.

Kajun Gogwurr, da Zombee Masta

Modeling

Kajun was modeled mostly from the Ork Nob box.  His snapping fingers are a hand holding a combi-weapon with the gun carved out of the palm, and the fingers custom sculpted.  The Skull is from the Ork Trukk sprue and the cane is brass rod with putty.  The Suit is sculpted out of putty, as is the hat.  The brim of the hat and the red ribbon are plasticard.

The Zombee is the Zombie Champion from the old Fantasy Zombie Command Blister.  The Shield arm was modified with a rokkit and putty to be holding an overflowing beer stein.  The Mardee-Grah Beads are putty.

The “voodoo dolls” are a placeholder mini designed to represent Kajun’s extra attacks.  They are a mix of Epic minis and putty.

Background

Smartyskull’s rise to power involved incorporating several other warbands into his. Mostly, other Ork Warbosses resented a Boss who was a dirty stinkin’ Humie lover.

Gurrshak Wart-rot was one of these. He and Smartyskull raided each other for resources until the clash came to a head at the battle of Da Great Round Clearin’, a clearing in Wart-rot’s forest that was generally squarish. Smartyskull dueled with Wart-rot, and managed to get the upper hand. His Ork instincts telling him to kill competitors overrode his Humie-machine logic preaching mercy, and Smartyskull killed Wart-rot.

As the death blow was struck, green lightning pierced the sky, and a strange Ork appeared. Surrounded by a green haze of psychic energy, he wore a tattered black suit coat, and face paint like a skull. He doffed his strange stovepipe hat and proclaimed to his tribe that Poindexta Smartyskull was their new Warboss. The tribe answered with a joyous WAAAAAAAAGH!

Suddenly, a large KLANK sounded as a Power Klaw impacted Smartyskull’s back. One of Wart-rot’s drinking buddies decided that he would be a better candidate for Warboss.

*SNAP*

As the strange noise echoed through the forest, Smartyskull rose to his feet to find the Nob who had backhanded him replaced by an emaciated rotting shadow of his former self. The strange Ork in the hat approached.

“You not lissen what I say, an’ dat’s da las’ mistake you goan’ make. I’s Kajun Gogwurr an’ you’s a Zombee, so you’s do whatta I says oh you’s goan’ stay dat way, heah?”

The zombified Ork moaned and lunged for Smartyskull. Kajun shot forth his hand and sprayed a reddish powder. It covered the Zombie from head to toe, and he burned with green fire. A bit of the powder got into Smartyskull’s nose, and it burned hotter than the hottest pepper-shroom. After a mild sneezing fit, he turned to Kajun.

“Kajun Gogwurr, you gotta lotta mojo. How’s about you be my number one advizer?”

“Das’ jus’ fine. Come, we celebrate wif’ mah fahnest Squig-Gumbo. Fire up da pot, boys!”

After barely choking down the hideous spicy goo, Smartyskull and Kajun Gogwurr made a pact. Smartyskull would allow the snakebites to keep to the old ways if they wanted, but to give them newer supplies if they wished, and lead them to battle. He would also let Gogwurr organize Mardee-Grah, a festival of masks and heavy drinking. Gogwurr would keep uppity boys in line, and dish out gumbo. He is Smartyskull’s wisest source of council (not difficlut considering the competition) and the warband’s greatest chef. His Gumbo is so spicy you can’t tell it’s been rotting.

Gogwurr has also made a habit of making little dolls of all the powerful Orks in the camp. After all, one day he might need to do something to them…

Speed Math: 2D6 vs 3D6, when should I boost?

So my previous math rant had to do with getting masses of six-sided dice to do what you want.  This is for a system more geared toward mass combat, like 40K.  But for a more detailed skirmish based system like Warmachine, you need more complex statistics to figure out what you want to do.

In Warmachine, you roll 2D6 and add the result to an attack skill.  If you meet or beat the enemy’s defense, you hit.  But, if you roll the dice and every die you roll comes up “1” then you miss, even if the result would have been higher than the enemy defense.  Look at this square I drew:

All you have to do is take the enemy defense, subtract your attack skill, and the result is the amount you have to roll to hit.  Then, count up all the squares in the above picture and divide the result by 36 to get the percent chance to hit.

For example, a Cygnar Charger (RAT 6) is trying to shoot High Exemplar Kreoss (DEF 14).  14 – 6 = 8.  So, the Cygnar player must roll an 8 or more to hit.  You’ll see above that 15 of the squares are 8 or higher, so 15 / 36 = .416666 or 41.67% which is a little better than 2 in 5.  Not very good odds.

Now imagine that the Charger had forgone his movement to gain a +2 aiming bonus (effective RAT 8).  14 – 8 = 6.  Now there are 26 suares 6 or higher, so the chances are 26 / 36 = .722 or 72.2% better than seven in ten.  Much more likely.

What if you NEED to hit Kreoss, but have to move to hit him?  In Warmachine you can always boost to hit.  This makes the math slightly harder, but it’s easy to break down visually.  Click to zoom and actually see the numbers.

This would be easier in 3d but I don’t know how to do that, so I made 6 grids.  This seems daunting at first, but once you see patterns you can go pretty fast.  Now let’s say the Charger is boosting to hit.  The check is the same (14 – 6 still equals 8 ) but now there is a 3D6 roll.  You’ll notice in the first square that 21 of the 36 squares are 8 or more.  In the second box, it’s 26 which is 21 + 5.  In the third it’s 30 which is 26 + 4, one less than the previous increase.  Then it’s 33 (30+3) 35 (33+2) and 36 (35+1).  See the pattern?

So the total for all of these boxes 8 or more is 181.  The total number of boxes is 216.  181 / 216 = .8397 or about 84%.  Much higher than the 41.67% of the unboosted roll.  It’s more than twice as likely now.  However, you don’t ever really need to do the math on the 3D6 rolls ever.  I just showed you so that you’d know that the 3D6 is much better than 2D6.  Duh.

So when should you boost?  Take a look at this handy dandy chart:

Common wisdom of Warmachine Forums says if you need a 6 or lower, don’t boost because in the end it’s a waste.  According to the chart above, a 6 gives you a 72% chance.  That’s pretty good.  A 7 gives you a 58% chance, going from better than 7 in 10 to slightly worse than 6 in 10.  Bu this can be modified if you NEED something to hit or if you don’t care, like if you’re taking a pot shot or swinging with an open fist when a Quake Hammer does the damage.  So if you NEED the hit, an 83% chance might not even be safe enough and you’d boost needing a 5.  However if you don’t care you might not boost even if you need a 10 which is a 1 in 6 chance.  You’ll have to tailor it to the appropriate situation, but if you can call up that grid in your head and do some simple division, you can judge whether to boost or not pretty quickly.  Probably faster than it takes for your opponent to look up the stats of his model.

On my plate: 3-7-11

-Battlefleet Gothic: 11 Chaos escorts plus a huge amound of ordnance, 8 Transports, Orbital Dock, 3 Satellites and 20 small ground defences.  I need to buy spray primer tonight.

-Warmachine: Upgraded priorities.  Next project after Gothic is Kreoss, 2 light jacks and heavy from Box Set.  Then I can Demo Warmachine.  Cygnar on hold.

-Necromunda: Need to finish my Orlock gang, and start painting Delaques.  I also need to get more tabs from Jen so that I can use the Necromunda board she made for me.  Status: In progress. Orlocks are 1/2 painted.

-Azure Flames: Need to convert a stand in for Kor’Sarro Khan, and mod up a Chaplain on Bike.  I also need to conceptualize an Honor Guard unit for Perseus.  Status: ON HOLD. The Flames are complete enough for now.

-Orks: Need to complete painting all minis, possibly buy one more box of Boys but no more. Status: ON HOLD pending spring.  I need warm temperatures outside to do dipping, as I cannot do it indoors due to cares.

-The Saratogan 58th: Need to build most of the minis and paint up at least 1500 points to start learning how to play Guard.  Status: ON HOLD.  Way too much on my plate to start an army from almost scratch.

-Epic 40,000: Have to get more Space Marine Rhinos, and paint both a huge Space Marine army and Ork army.  Status: ON HOLD.  Once again, too much on my plate.

I’m almost done with Gothic!  Stuff is getting crossed off my list.

Imperial Navy Fleet finished

Imperial Navy done!  Next: Chaos!  First, I must re-base the Repulsive class grand cruiser onto a large base so it can buy a 3rd shield.  Then, paint 11 escorts and all their ordnance, which is a lot.

EDIT: With all available upgrades, Torpedo Bombers on the Emperor Class,  and a Solar Admiral with 3 re-rolls, this is 3980 points, so if 4 ships take power rams, it’s exactly 4000

Speed Math: The D6 and statistics.

A lot of games that I play use the D6 or standard 6 sided die as a determination of random events (i.e. shooting you in the face).  Ideally a fair die will have a 1/6 chance to roll any result 1-6.  You can use simple knowledges of statistics to determine whether a move is correct or not.

For example: The remnants of a Space marine Tactical Squad consisting of six Space Marines with Bolters and Bolt Pistols is 10″ away from a squad of six Chaos Space Marines.  They have three choices.  1: Move up, fire their Bolt Pistols, and assault the Chaos Marines.  2: Remain stationary (or move to a slightly better position less than 12″ away) and fire their Bolters twice, or 3: run away!

The tactical situation determines what you should do, but let’s use statistics to determine what each choice will entail.

Scenario 1: Because the Space Marine’s BS is 4, they hit on a roll of 3+.  This means that, on average, 2/3 of the shots will hit.  This means that the Marines will get 4 hits with their pistols.  These shots wound on a 4+ so 2 of them should wound.  Because the Chaos marines have a 3+ save, the chances that at least one Chaos Marine will die is 1/3 + 2/3 * 1/3, which is a 5/9 chance or about 56%.  Then the Marines charge.  They each get 2 attacks for a total of 12, and hit on a 4+ which means that 6 should hit.  They wound on a 4+ so 3 should wound, and because the Chaos Marines have a 3+ armor save, about 1 Chaos Marine should die.  If a Chaos Marine died from shooting, the Chaos Marines would have 10 attacks, which would generate 5 hits, and 2.5 wounds.  Let’s be generous and give them 3.  1 Space Marine would die, and the combat would be a tie.  Next turn, Marines get 5 attacks, Chaos Marines get 8.  Clearly this will end poorly for the Marines.

Scenario 2: The Marines fire 12 times, hit 8 times, and cause 4 wounds, so on average 1 Chaos Marine dies and there’s a small chance a second will die.  The Chaos Marines will then move up next turn.  The Chaos Marines are better in assault, so they fire 5 Bolt pistols, Hit 2.5 times which rounds up to 3.  They then wound 1.5 times which we round down (In these scenarios I round up, then down, then up etc.).  Probably not killing a Marine.  They charge getting 15 attacks, 8 hits, and 4 wounds, which will probably kill a Marine but the Marines attack back with 6, hit 3 times, and wound twice, possibly killing a Chaos Marine.  Not as bad, but the Marines are still outclassed by the Chaos Marines and their bolt pistols and close combat weapons.

Scenario 3: Marines move back 6″ and run D6″ for a total movement of 7-12″ away from the Chaos Marines.  If the squad was 10″ away, then the Chaos  Marines will be able to shoot the Marines if the final distance is 18″ or less.  The Marines more 6″ in the movement phase, and are now 16″ away.  If the Marines roll a 1 or 2, they will be able to be shot, so this is a 1/3 chance.  The remaining 2/3 chance the Marines will not be able to be shot.

In the end, do you want to pin the Chaos Marines in place?  Harass them and make them advance, essentially baiting them?  Or preserve your squad to hold an objective?  By understanding the math above, you can make an informed decision based on your needs.  Without understanding how well each outcome is likely to be, you may trust in those marines to break the Chaos Marines, which is unlikely.

Once you can do this kind of thing in your head, you can make choices on the battlefield much quicker.

More Imperial Navy

All Imperial Navy ships are done, but I forgot the Ordnance Markers!  Those will hopefully be fast.

Benjamins: The Cost of Gaming

At an incredibly boring meeting today, my school district discussed poverty and its effects on education.  Bottom line: Poverty BAD.  But it got me to thinking: my idea for making a gaming club will do more than foster relationships between gamers, it will give access to gaming to students who can’t afford such expensive hobbies.  They’ll at least be able to try various games.

This then led to the inevitable question: is this a hobby for everyone, or just bourgeois capitalist fatcats like myself?  How much does it COST to really get into gaming?

Well, let’s see.  These cost estimates are based on retail prices of JUST miniatures only.  No glue, paint, dice, terrain, or anything else.  This is what it costs to get into gaming if you already know of a gaming group that provides boards and terrain, and ignores glue and paint as negligible.  Of course they’re not, but I need to make this assumption to make the cost analysis fair.  After all, scale will determine how much glue you use and overinflate prices for larger games.

Warhammer 40,000

40K is good for beginners at 1,000 pts.  This is a good size game for a beginner, and it’s a good jump off point for a larger army.  I’ll use the Ubiquitous Space Marines, as most new players pick one iteration or another of Marines.

-Commander Box set: $20

-2x Battleforce: $180 (for 10 Assault Marines, 10 Scouts, 2 full Tat Squads, 2 Rhinos, and 10 more Space Marines)

-Terminator or Assault Terminator box: $50

Total: $250  That’s a lot of disposable income for a high schooler, and out of the question for someone below the poverty line.  But an after school job could allow students enough pocket change to buy this piecemeal.  Not too out of control.

Warhammer Fantasy

Decided to go with the High Elves because they’re in the Island of Blood box, allowing easy starting or expansion.  This estimate will not allow that, only allowing blisters and box sets as the Island of Blood box is a STEAL and is unfair to all other armies except Skaven.

-Pewter Character: $15

-Pewter mage: $13.50

-2x Archers box: $70

-2x Spearmen Box: $70

-Silver Helms Box: $35

-Bolt Thrower: $22.50 (not the metal band)

Total: $226 – Similar to 40K.  This also does not include Movement Trays, as cheap players can make their own out of breakfast cereal boxes until they can afford good ones.

Warmachine/Hordes

Much smaller scale (which is why I omitted glue/paint)  Chose Cygnar 25pts because I can relate to it.

-Cygnar Battleforce: $50

-Long Gunners x6: $25

-Stormblades: $43

-3x Stormsmiths: $36

Total: $154 This estimate has a lot of error as I compiled it from several sources.

So it seems that for about $250 you can have a small playable force of GW minis, or probably close to 35 points of Warmachine/Hordes.  Differing armies can inflate this price, but probably not by too much.  All in all, not too expensive to get in to.  However expanding your armies can cost, big time.  That’s how they get you.